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A Bayesian Approach to Time Series Forecasting

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f Today we are going to implement a Bayesian linear regression in R from scratch and use it to forecast US GDP growth. This post is based on a very informative manual from the Bank of England on Applied Bayesian Econometrics . I have translated the original Matlab code into R since its open source and widely used in data analysis/science. My main goal in this post is to try and give people a better understanding of Bayesian statistics, some of it’s advantages and also some scenarios where you might want to use it. Let’s take a moment to think about why we would we even want to use Bayesian techniques in the first place. Well, there are a couple of advantages in doing so and these are particularly attractive for time series analysis. One issue when working with time series models is over-fitting particularly when estimating models with large numbers of parameters over relatively short time periods. This is not such a problem in this particular case but certainly can...
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